Student-visa alarms
A key source of recent enrollment growth is poised to falter, our Karin Fischer and Dan Bauman report.
The number of visas issued to Indian students plunged by a third this fall, show U.S. Department of State data. Here’s what to know:
- Just 59,000 F-1 visas were awarded this year in India by U.S. consulates during the critical months from May to August.
- Almost 89,000 F-1 visas went out last year over the same time frame.
- The number of visas issued around the world fell by 12.5 percent for this academic year.
- More F-1 visas were issued in China than in India this summer, even though the number of visas issued in China dropped by 12 percent from the summer of 2023 It’s a stark signal since India last year overtook China as the top source of international students in the United States.
Enrollment from India has been an important bright spot for American colleges lately, buoying lucrative U.S. graduate programs in particular.
More visa denials likely caused the drop, according to American colleges, international recruiters, and education advisers in India. Application numbers hadn’t fallen by enough to explain declines in visa issuances, they reported. But it’s too soon to say for sure, as the published data don’t include visa applications.
Possible explanations for the decline run the gamut:
- Economic and political uncertainty might have prompted some Indian students to delay studying in the United States.
- Pent-up demand could be exhausted as the pandemic’s tail fades.
- The State Department could be cracking down amid concerns about student-visa abuse.
- Colleges may have tapped the brakes on rapidly expanding programs that were popular among students from India.
The State Department urged caution in interpreting the data. Visa totals for the year aren’t yet available, and aggregating the published monthly data might not reflect the ultimate numbers, a spokesperson said. But in several years of reporting, The Chronicle has yet to find a significant disparity between monthly and annual data.
The bigger picture: Like other enrollment storms this year, expect this headwind to buffet colleges unevenly. Several research universities told The Chronicle their new enrollments from India remain steady, while Saint Louis University has blamed a drop in international students for a $20-million shortfall that’s prompting cuts.
